Sports Math- 101

Fantasy Football can be complicated. The numbers change drastically week to week, and every week, sports writers take turns telling you what you probably already noticed. Roddy white is cutting into Julio Jones’ production? You don’t say. Teams are double covering Calvin Johnson? Go figure.
It is of this frustration that I have compiled a list of value equations to try to quantify and express my thoughts on the trends of the league going forward. I bet on talent, not numbers, plugged through the filter of my own experience and feelings about the big name players of the NFL. I might be right, I’m probably very wrong on a lot of these equations, but it makes more sense than trying to impart fantasy value to Tim Tebow’s faith.

Aaron Rodgers>Matthew Stafford>Robert Griffin III>Matt Ryan>Drew Brees>Josh Freeman>Mark Sanchez>Tim Tebow

(QB-GB) I was kinda hoping for a final of 55-46 after the fireworks in the first half, but when James Starks comes back healthy, everyone will rush back to the Pack’s bandwagon.
(QB-Atl) It’s not the first time that Matty Ice, Michael Turner and the Falcons have looked like World Beaters early in the year. They have a bad habit of trailing off that production (or trading off… Damn You Roddy White!!!). Carolina played them tough, and sooner or later, someone is going to put together a blueprint for beating them. Then, we’ll see how adaptable their recipe for early season success is this year.
(QBs-NYJ) Remember what I said about people overreacting to short-term results? It’s much worse in places like New York, Dallas and Philidelphia. There are lots of things wrong with the New York Jets this season, catastrophic season-ending injuries on both sides of the ball in consecutive weeks for example, but if you think that Tim Tebow is the answer, you haven’t been paying attention. Tim Tebow caught lightning in a bottle at the end of the year with the Broncos in 2011, but the idea that he could recreate that in year one in the Jets’ system, his second at the pro level, you’re “Wacka-Doodle Crazy”. I’ll also say that Kyle Orton>Mark Sanchez. The problem with Tebow is that while he still isn’t any closer to learning NFL defenses, every team in the NFL knows what he brings to the party: A lot whole lot of flashbulbs and sizzle, infrequent and often inexplicable, mystery meat.

Adrian Peterson>Frank Gore>Chris Johnson>Jamaal Charles>Darren McFadden> Trent Richardson
(RB- Ten) Let’s not hoist a “Mission Accomplished” banner over battleship CJ2K just yet, but for the first time in what feels like decades, Johnson cracked the hundred-yard ceiling in week 4.
(RB- Cle) Richardson has started to display the flashes of greatness he was drafted to bring, and Brandon Weeden has shown flashes of that steep learning curve that coaches were expecting from a 28 year-old rookie. Nonetheless, the Browns are bad this year, really bad. See Also: Rebuilding.

Calvin Johnson>16 RecTD 2012>Larry Fitzgerald>Marques Colston>Torrey Smith>Julio Jones>Stevie Johnson>Vincent Jackson>DeSean Jackson>Jeremy Kerley>Wes Welker>Victor Cruz>Demaryius Thomas>Reggie Wayne>Malcom Floyd
(WR- Det) I know I’m not the only one projecting Megatron to lead wide-outs this year, but through four weeks, heading into a bye this week, Johnson has only one touchdown reception. It’s a bold prediction at this point in the season, to value him greater than 16 touchdowns. Might not happen, but given how competitive that division isn’t this year, I think that the bye week is coming at a great time for the Stafford, Johnson tandem.
(WR- NYJ) If you’ve never heard Jeremy Kerley’s name before, don’t fret; you aren’t alone. So why am I valuing him greater than names like Welker and Wayne? Santonio Holmes isn’t coming back, and with Revis also out for the year, Kerley is likely going to be the beneficiary of the Jets playing catch-up for the rest of the year.

Vernon Davis>Jimmy Graham>Owen Daniels>Greg Olsen>Tony Gonzalez>Dennis Pitta>Antonio Gates>Jacob Tamme
(TE- Hou) Underrated.

(TE- SD) Okay, so I’m going to try and be delicate about this, but Gates has a complicated and consistent history of foot injuries, and based on my eyeball test, he’s on the down slope of his career arc. As of right now, San Diego lacks a real identity on the offensive side of the ball. Robert Meachum ain’t it.

That’s all for now, Readers. Leave me comments! I’ll try to do better next week.